# Odds **Source:** https://wett-bonus.net/en/odds **Language:** English --- # Betting odds – how they come about and how sports betting odds are calculated Odds – or betting odds to be precise – reflect the probability of a certain game, event, or betting outcome happening. In German-speaking regions, odds are usually given as decimal numbers (e.g., 1.7). In the UK, fractional odds are preferred (e.g., 1/10), and in North America, they like to use US odds (e.g., +110). Let's stick to decimal odds, though. Odds start at > 1.0 – if the odds were 1.0, you would get back the exact same amount you wagered. Assuming, of course, that the betting event actually happens. If it doesn't, you lose your stake; with odds of 1.0, you just have to bear the risk, which is one of the reasons why most bookmakers longer display odds of 1.0 on their website. **From a probability to odds?** Undoubtedly, you can Betting beginners work with probabilities rather than betting odds. For example, one friend says to another, I am 70% sure that team A will win. 70% probability is what odds? Calculation: 100 divided by probability = odds // 100 divided by 70 = 1.42 70% probability is therefore odds of 1.42 **ATTENTION:** In theory, with an exact probability of 70%, hardly any bookmaker will give you odds of 1.42 or higher. The explanation is as simple as the service of a sports betting website. Bookmakers are service providers and have to live off some kind of commission – which they take via the payout key (it indicates how much profit the respective bookmaker pays out again on a betting market). Of course, you will occasionally get odds of 1.42 with a high payout key (such as a payout key of 99% at 1Xbet). As a rule, the percentage that remains as a profit margin for the bookmaker is distributed across the respective betting options. This is referred to as a balanced book. **How are odds created?** Matchday 6 of the German Bundesliga is in its final stages and you already have ideas about what you could bet on for matchday 7. What actually happens from the opening of the betting market (initial pricing of a match) until kickoff? *Which factors influence the odds?* First of all, the golden rule is: The customer, the consumer, the sports better themselves play a major role in determining the odds. So, just like in a market economy: **Supply <> Demand** This phenomenon becomes clearer when you look at various betting exchanges like Smarkets etc. Here, shortly after the final whistle of the 6th matchday, offers are submitted for upcoming games. (E.g. A user would bet up to 50 euros on Bayern at odds of 2.0. However, one is willing to provide risk capital for such high odds. The user tries odds of 1.9 for a Bayern win, trying until someone accepts their bet). Back/Lay. It can take a while until this price stabilizes and a certain betting volume is reached. Precious time that big bookmakers mostly don't have. That's why there are bookmakers who partly determine the price themselves, thus providing a reference value or reference odds for other, smaller bookmakers. To name a few: **Pinnacle Sports, the major Asian bookmaker SBObet** , etc. The big difference between gambling and sports betting is the **statistical material** , which you can use to form an opinion. And of course, statistics, current team streaks, player injuries, venues, referees, weather conditions, etc., play an important role in setting the odds. If an absolute key player is out, the odds for that player's team will immediately rise across all bookmakers. If the pitch is barely or hardly playable, the odds for Under X goals in the match will drop. If a team has won six games in a row, the win odds for the upcoming 7th game will be lower than if the team arrived with 6 defeats under their belt. If Vettel wins all three practice sessions and takes pole for a certain Grand Prix, the win odds are only a fraction of what they were before the 1st practice session. **Who has the best odds?** This always depends on the respective betting event and the betting option. **No bookmaker can always offer the best odds on every betting option!** An important parameter for always playing with attractive odds is the payout ratio. The closer this is to 100%, the more winnings the bookmaker pays back out. An absolute top value here would be 99% – but payout ratios between 95% and 99% are already a sign of an attractive bookmaker. Sports betting providers with a consistently high payout ratio include: 1xbet , 5Dimes, Bet3000 and Pinnacle Sports. **Outstanding betting odds** How realistic is it to guess an extraordinarily high odds? Well, just as realistic as the probability predicted for the outcome of an event. The best example of this would be the biggest sports sensation of this millennium. Leicester City wins the English Premier League. The odds for this long-term bet before the season were 5001. That means for a stake of 1 euro, at the end of the past season (2015/16), you got 5001 euros back. By comparison, everyone surely still remembers Greece's sensational triumph at Euro 2004 in Portugal. Back then, the long-term bet "Greece becomes European Champion" had odds of 67. So it was much more realistic than the Premier League winner Leicester City. **Surveys and odds** Political bettors have been rudely awakened in the recent past. The elections regarding Brexit and the presidential election in Austria, to name a few big ones, did not all end the way the bookies predicted. The bookies can really only rely on the latest poll numbers, which represent nothing more than a probability. It will be exciting to see how the presidential election in the States turns out.