Surebets: The ultimate guide to arbitrage betting
Introduction: Are there really risk-free sports bets?
Many people view sports betting as a form of gambling. However, there is a special approach that goes far beyond pure chance and gut feeling – namely the so-called arbitrage bet , also known as surebet . This is a strategy that allows you to bet on all possible outcomes of a sporting event – with a guaranteed profit .
This method is not based on tips or insider knowledge, but on pure mathematics and market observation. Surebets occur when two or more bookmakers offer different odds for the exact same game, resulting in a mathematically secure profit opportunity.
In this comprehensive guide, you'll learn what surebets really are, how they work, how to calculate stakes correctly, what tools you need, and the risks and opportunities this strategy brings. By the end of this article, you'll know exactly how to start arbitrage betting yourself – realistically, legally, and with a plan.
What exactly is a surebet?
The term "surebet" is a combination of the English words "sure" and "bet". It refers to a betting situation where – with the correct distribution of stakes – you will make a profit no matter what . This is fundamentally what sets surebets apart from classic sports betting, where you bet on a single outcome and take the risk of losing everything.
A classic example is a tennis match with two possible outcomes: Player A wins or Player B wins. If Bookmaker A offers odds of 2.10 on Player A and Bookmaker B offers odds of 2.05 on Player B, clever stake distribution creates a situation where you always get paid out more than you stake .
What causes these odds differences?
- Different risk assessments: Bookmakers assess probabilities differently.
- Market movement: Large bets on one side shift odds in the short term.
- Delayed updates: Some bookmakers adjust odds more slowly.
- Own limits & target audiences: Some providers focus on specific sports or regions.
How does a surebet actually work?
A surebet only works if the odds are distributed such that the sum of the reciprocals (1 / odds) is less than 1. This formula is the basis of every arbitrage bet.
The formula:
Surebet-Index = (1/Quote A) + (1/Quote B)
Example:
- Odds on Player A: 2.10 → 1 / 2.10 = 0.4762
- Odds on Player B: 2.05 → 1 / 2.05 = 0.4878
0.4762 + 0.4878 = 0.964 < 1 → Surebet available!
Profit calculation:
Total stake: €200
Distribution of stakes proportional to the odds weight:
- Stake Player A = (0.4762 / 0.964) * 200 ≈ €98.8
- Stake Player B = (0.4878 / 0.964) * 200 ≈ €101.2
Payout in any case: approx. €207 → Net profit: €7
What is an "arbitrage margin"?
The arbitrage margin describes the theoretical profit margin of a surebet – meaning what percentage of profit you will make with the correct stake distribution. The smaller the sum of the reciprocals, the larger this margin.
Example calculation with margin:
Sum of reciprocals: 0.964 → Arbitrage margin = (1 – 0.964) * 100 = 3.6%
This means: You can make a 3.6% profit – guaranteed, as long as everything is placed correctly.
3-way surebets: Football as a special case
In sports like football, there are three possible match outcomes: home win, draw, away win. Here a surebet is a bit more complex, as you have to bet on three different outcomes ideally with three different bookmakers.
Example odds:
- Bookmaker A: Home win @ 3.60
- Bookmaker B: Draw @ 3.50
- Bookmaker C: Away win @ 3.80
Calculation: 1 / 3.60 + 1 / 3.50 + 1 / 3.80 = 0.278 + 0.286 + 0.263 = 0.827 → Surebet available.
Profit margins on 3-way bets are usually smaller - but they pop up more often.
When do these 3-way surebets happen?
- Often found in international leagues with high betting frequency
- Around kickoff, when odds are jumping around
- When one bookmaker takes a chance on an underdog while others play it safer
Tools for finding surebets
Finding surebets used to be a tedious, manual process. Today, specialized tools do the heavy lifting for you - scanning hundreds of bookmakers live. These software solutions don't just show you available arbitrage bets, they also calculate the exact stakes you need to place.
1. RebelBetting
- Key feature: Beginner-friendly, clean interface
- Features: Live surebets, pre-match, ROI calculator, alert function
- Price: from 39€/month (Basic version)
- Pros: Easy to understand, great community
- Cons: No app, better suited for desktop
2. BetBurger
- Key feature: Very detailed, built for pros
- Features: Filters for odds, margin, sport, bookmaker
- Price: from €89/month (pre-match only), €129/month with live betting
- Pros: Precise matches, even for small bookmakers
- Cons: Cluttered interface, steep learning curve
3. OddsPortal
- Key feature: Manual comparison possible
- Features: Bookmaker comparison, odds history
- Price: free
- Pros: Ideal for learning and understanding
- Cons: No automatic detection
4. SureBet.com (Free)
- Key feature: Can be used for free with limited access
- Feature: List with current surebets, manual entry required
- Price: free / Premium from €29/month
Pro tip: Combine tools. For example, use BetBurger to find & RebelBetting for an overview & stake calculation.
Bankroll management: The underestimated key
Your capital determines your scalability. The typical profit margin per surebet is 0.5–3% . This means: the more you stake, the more you can earn. Sounds simple – but it's demanding to pull off.
Example scenario:
- Average margin: 2.2%
- Average stake: €500 per surebet
- Number of surebets per day: 10
- Daily profit: €5000 * 2.2% = €110
- Monthly profit: €3,300 (with daily use)
Important rules:
- Spread your capital across at least 5–10 bookmakers
- Keep enough funds in each account for spontaneous bets
- Use e-wallets like Skrill/Neteller for fast transfers
- Never risk your entire bankroll on a single surebet combo
Table of bankroll distribution (Example with €5,000):
| Bookies | Starting bankroll | Target odds (min) |
|---|---|---|
| Bookie A | 800€ | 2,00 |
| Bookie B | 700€ | 2,00 |
| Bookie C | 900€ | 1,90 |
| Bookie D | 1.200€ | 3,00 |
| Reserve | 1.400€ | – |
How bookmakers spot arbitrage bettors (and ban them)
Even though surebets are legal, bookies aren't huge fans. Many platforms use smart tools to spot arbitrage bettors.
Typical red flags for bookmakers:
- Always go for maximum odds
- Hardly any betting history, but huge stakes
- Betting style doesn't match the average bettor
- Unusually high number of single bets, no accumulators
Bookmaker reactions:
- Max stake gets slashed (often down to just a few bucks)
- Account gets frozen without warning
- Winnings get checked and might be cancelled
- ⚠️ Bets placed on "glitch odds" will be voided
How to stay under the radar
- Don't always bet on the maximum odds
- Place an accumulator bet every now and then
- Delay your bets a little – don't place one every 10 seconds
- Spread your activity across multiple bookmakers & devices
- Use browsers with separate sessions (e.g., Firefox & Chrome)
Risks of surebets
Even though the strategy is based on "safety", there are real risks:
- Odds change after placing the first bet: The surebet is gone
- Technical error at bookmaker A: Bet is not accepted
- Bet is cancelled: e.g., due to "obvious pricing error"
- Deposit limits / payout delays: Money is stuck
- Sudden account suspension on only part of the surebet
Tip: Start with small amounts and get to know how your preferred bookmakers behave first. Scale up only after that!
Advanced strategies for arbitrage betting
1. Combining surebets and value bets
As soon as you are familiar with surebets, it is worth also using so-called Value Bets These are bets with a positive expected value that can make you profitable over time – even if they don't individually guarantee a win. Surebets deliver steady, small profits – value bets occasionally bring larger profits.
Many experienced sports bettors combine both strategies to pair safety-oriented earnings with growth potential. However, it's important to keep them strictly separated with discipline and not bring any risk into a surebet.
2. Surebet automation via API
Pros rely on automated tools that communicate directly with betting accounts via APIs. Some surebet scanners (e.g., RebelBetting Pro) offer these interfaces. You can use them to place bets without clicking manually – which saves reaction time and allows for more surebets per day.
Note: Automation requires programming skills or third-party plugins. Make sure this complies with your bookmakers' terms and conditions.
3. Distributing capital across multiple identities – watch out for risks
Some pros use multiple devices, IP addresses, or even "friends" to run new accounts with restricted bookmakers. That can work – but: In many cases, this is a violation of the terms and conditions and can lead to your account being completely closed. If you want to be successful in the long run, transparency is the more sustainable strategy.
Legal & Tax matters in Germany (and internationally)
1. Are arbitrage bets legal?
In Germany and most EU countries, arbitrage betting is legal , as long as you bet with licensed bookmakers . There are no laws prohibiting arbitrage. But: Many bookmakers don't like arbitrage and exclude it in their terms and conditions.
2. What happens to my winnings regarding taxes?
- Individuals: Winnings from sports betting are tax-free in Germany if they are not operated as a business.
- Commercial activity: If you bet systematically, regularly, and with the intent to make a profit (e.g. full-time), the tax office may classify it as a commercial activity.
- Recommendation: Keep a log of your activities. If you're unsure → ask a tax advisor!
3. Betting tax in Germany
- 5% tax on your stake or winnings, depending on the bookmaker
- Some providers cover the tax for you (e.g. Bet3000)
- Important: The tax reduces your surebet margin → always factor it in!
Checklist: How to start with surebets
- ✅ Have at least €1,000–€2,000 in starting capital ready
- ✅ Open accounts with 5–10 reputable bookmakers
- ✅ Subscribe to a professional surebet scanner (RebelBetting or BetBurger)
- ✅ Practice calculation system for stake distribution
- ✅ Prepare browser tabs & devices for quick placement
- ✅ Document capital allocation
- ✅ Read taxes & bookmaker terms
Glossary: The most important terms explained
- Surebet: A bet where you are guaranteed to win by distributing your stakes across all outcomes.
- Arbitrage: Exploiting price differences in different markets – here: odds
- Odds: The factor by which your stake is multiplied (e.g. 2.10)
- Betting Tax: 5% legal levy on sports bets in Germany
- Value Bet: Bet with a positive expected value, even if not guaranteed to win
- API: Programming interface that allows automated placement of bets
Conclusion: Is surebetting worth the effort?
Yes – if you proceed in a structured and disciplined manner.
Surebets are no magic and also no risk-free path to riches. However, they are a proven strategy with which you can achieve real, repeatable profits through clever stake distribution and odds differences.
With a good tool, clean stake planning, clear capital management, and the willingness to invest time and patience, arbitrage betting is still a realistic method in 2025 to make sports betting profitable – without relying on luck.
Your next step: Choose 2-3 bookmakers, try out your first surebets with small amounts, and then systematically scale your strategy. The world of arbitrage betting is technical – but worthwhile.