What are value bets?
A value bet (value = worth) is a bet where you have a percentage advantage over the bookmaker. In other words, you place a bet that has a higher value (higher odds) than the actual probability.
How do value bets come about?
Such value bets can arise in several ways:
- Disagreement among bookmakers : Bookmakers do not always share the same view, which is why value bets occur repeatedly, especially in long-term bets, novelty bets, and bets on niche sports.
For example, three independent bookmakers are pricing up a "Who will win" outright bet for "I'm a Celebrity – Get Me Out of Here!". Apart from some pre-competition polls, popularity ratings measured by social media fans or followers, and individual likeability, the bookmakers have pretty much free rein to declare who is the favorite and who is the underdog. This way, customers (sports bettors) can find value bets and, consequently, "sure bets". Someone who deals with the "stars and starlets" in Germany on a daily basis can probably narrow down the circle of favorites to 3 candidates. The following scenario could arise.
Favorite 1: Odds 4.5 with Bookmaker X – Stake 100: Payout 450 if you win
Favorite 2: Odds 5.0 with Bookmaker Y – Stake 100: Payout 500 if you win
Favorite 3: Odds 6.0 with Bookmaker Z – Stake 100. Payout 600 if you win
If one of these favorites actually wins, you've already got 150 euros in the bag (450 payout minus 100 euros stake). If favorite 3 wins, you'll even pocket 300 euros (600 euros payout minus 300 euros stake). You can use a portion of this "profit" to cover any long-shot underdogs with odds over 10.
- The bookmaker hesitates or reacts too slowly
Every football team has so-called key players who can decide a game on their own and are crucial for success or failure. Consequently, a possible absence of these players due to injury has a significant impact on the odds. With more than 50,000 betting options per week, bookmakers cannot always react immediately, so if you are quick, you can get the not-yet-adjusted price (the higher odds) for the opposing team. You have thus placed a value bet. The odds will fall – if the claim about a possible absence of a key player is true. Conversely, the odds for the team with the missing key player will increase. This could result in a "sure bet" closer to the start of the match. That is, a bet where you can no longer lose.
Example: Hamburg v Cologne:
Odds 48h before kick-off: 3.2 (Tip 1) – 3.4 (Draw) – 2.1 (Tip 2)
40 hours before kickoff, Hamburger SV's current top scorer Bobby Wood gets injured.
Now is the best time to play the Cologne win odds 2.1 . (Assumption: 100 Euro stake)
Just before the match starts, the odds look like this: 4.3 (Tip 1) – 3.6 (Draw) – 1.7 (Tip 2)
You get odds of around 2.1 for the Double Chance Hamburg/Draw (Assumption: 100 Euro stake)
Now you have all three options covered. 100 Euro on Cologne win odds 2.1 = payout of 210 Euro. And 100 Euro on the Double Chance Hamburg/Draw 2.1 (Here it is also recommended to take a look at the +0.5 Asian Line Hamburg: Asian lines have a higher payout and the +0.5 Hamburg would in this case be equivalent to the Double Chance 1X) = payout 210 Euro. Basically a nice Value Bet that turns into a Sure Bet .
No matter how the game ends, you make 5% profit . 210 Euro payout minus 200 stake = 10 Euro profit = 5% profit on the total stake.
- Markets were opened too early by the bookmaker
Suppose on the 6th matchday of the German Bundesliga, two central defenders of Mainz 05 receive their 5th yellow card – consequence: 1 match suspension. Right after the match, the fixture for the 7th matchday between Mainz and Gladbach is opened – without taking the 2 suspensions into account. A bet on a Gladbach win would already be a value bet here.
In summary, value bets always occur when the customer has an informational advantage over the bookmaker, or at least believes they do.
If Alexander Zverev plays against Tomas Berdych and the current form curves point to a completely even match, then the chance for a Zverev win would be 50%, so odds of 2.0 (calculation: 100 / probability = odds).
A bookmaker prices the match as follows: Zverev win: odds 2.5 – Berdych win: odds 1.5
How do I check if the bet is a value bet?
Calculation : Value = (Odds * Probability in %) / 100
If you get a value above ONE (1) here, it's a value bet.
In our example:
Calculation: Value = (2.5 times 50) divided by 100 = 1.25
So: YES, Alexander Zverev would be worth a bet in this case (by the way, exactly that event happened on September 24, 2016: Zverev wins with odds of 2.5 against Tomas Berdych).
How do I find value bets in live betting?
Almost all bookmakers provide live stats for the match on a so-called scoreboard. In a football match, this important info ranges from a team's possession, corners, yellow and red cards, free kicks, all the way to dangerous attacks during the game.
So you don't even need to know the teams to find a value bet. A quick look at the live stats reveals the most important details about the match.
Example:
The Danish women's national team is playing a friendly match against the German women in Dresden. On paper, it's a clear-cut case – Denmark has odds of 9.0. After 20 minutes, a look at the stats shows that the Danes have way more possession than the Germans. When it comes to corners, the Danes are leading 5-1 and have had a whopping 30% more dangerous attacks than the Germans. In a case like this, the realistic odds would be more between 3.0 and 4.0 – let's say a 25% chance of winning.
Checking whether it's a value bet or not!
Calculation: Value = (9.0 times 25) divided by 100 = 2.25…. so definitely a value bet!!!
Value bet finder – find current value bets here
If you don't have time to calculate the value of a sports bet yourself, you can also use our Value Bets Finder. Under "100%" you'll find the betting odds that would actually be realistic, and under "VQ" the value odds, which are also the current betting odds.